TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072927
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Badanin
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711911118511
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 76.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 1–7 Valentyn Kurliuk Oleksandr Badanin has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1204 vs Kurliuk 1275
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 80% vs Kurliuk 60%
Badanin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 50% vs Kurliuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin +1 · Kurliuk +3
Kurliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kurliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 3.75 / Kurliuk 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kurliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072927
Badanin3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 22 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Kurliuk1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 49 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBadanin1wins
AwayKurliuk7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKurliuk leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadaninn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKurliuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin1Kurliuk7n = 8Kurliuk took 7 of 8
S2Badanin2Kurliuk6n = 8Kurliuk took 6 of 8
S3Badanin5Kurliuk3n = 8Badanin took 5 of 8
S4Badanin1Kurliuk3n = 4Kurliuk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricBadaninKurliukB − KBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match32.540.0−7.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 333 vs 142 / 28148.4%50.5%161 / 333 vs 142 / 281Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukBadanin 3.75/Kurliuk 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LApr 16 · 06:00O. Badanin—61111362V. Kurliuk—117811113
LApr 14 · 09:00O. Badanin—67100V. Kurliuk—1111123
LApr 14 · 06:30O. Badanin—1081181V. Kurliuk—12118113
WApr 6 · 09:30O. Badanin—1611113V. Kurliuk—14870
LMar 27 · 11:28O. Badanin—9612151V. Kurliuk—111110173
LMar 27 · 06:00O. Badanin—86111152V. Kurliuk—111189113
LDec 11 · 10:30O. Badanin—101070V. Kurliuk—1212113
LSep 11 · 07:00O. Badanin—5640V. Kurliuk—1111113
O. Badanin10
LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123WSep 4 · 08:30O. Badanin1.57111125113S. Honcharenko2.2559111182LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531WSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 09:00O. Badanin1.33121112113S. Zherykhin3.251091441LSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
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