TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072986
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Badanin
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115119211511118
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 84 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 64.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 58–28 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 28 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Badanin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-28 in 86
Badanin
Correct
gap of 30 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1188 vs Honcharenko 1312
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 60% vs Honcharenko 40%
Badanin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 50% vs Honcharenko 70%
Honcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin -1 · Honcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Badanin) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 1.57 / Honcharenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Badanin)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072986
Badanin1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 38 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Honcharenko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 70 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadanin6wins
AwayHoncharenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadanin85.7%6 of 7
AwayHoncharenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin7Honcharenko3n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S2Badanin7Honcharenko3n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S3Badanin5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Badanin3Honcharenko2n = 5Badanin took 3 of 5
S5Badanin1Honcharenko2n = 3Honcharenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadaninHoncharenkoB − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.132.1+6.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 332 vs 421 / 82048.2%51.3%160 / 332 vs 421 / 820Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninBadanin 1.57/Honcharenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Badanin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:00O. Badanin—7880S. Honcharenko—1111113
LJul 2 · 09:00O. Badanin—126611102S. Honcharenko—1011118123
WJun 22 · 09:30O. Badanin—1111113S. Honcharenko—6640
LJun 17 · 07:30O. Badanin—811101272S. Honcharenko—1161210113
WMay 29 · 10:38O. Badanin—119119113S. Honcharenko—61171142
WMay 29 · 07:00O. Badanin—1111113S. Honcharenko—5490
LApr 30 · 06:00O. Badanin—10119101S. Honcharenko—12911123
WApr 16 · 10:09O. Badanin—1111113S. Honcharenko—6860
WApr 16 · 07:00O. Badanin—1111113S. Honcharenko—6510
WMar 30 · 09:30O. Badanin—11118123S. Honcharenko—9711101
O. Badanin10
LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531WSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 09:00O. Badanin1.33121112113S. Zherykhin3.251091441LSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
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