TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084091
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118116––––
Ihor Sorochan
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 54.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 40–27 Ihor Sorochan Ihor Sorochan has won 27 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-27 in 67
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1314 vs Sorochan 1364
Sorochan
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 80% vs Sorochan 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 60% vs Sorochan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +2 · Sorochan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.73 / Sorochan 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Honcharenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084091
Honcharenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 100 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it85% 80 of 94
Sorochan2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 31 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwaySorochan1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%7 of 7
AwaySorochan33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko7Sorochan3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Honcharenko8Sorochan2n = 10Honcharenko took 8 of 10
S3Honcharenko6Sorochan4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko4Sorochan4n = 8split evenly
S5Honcharenko4Sorochan1n = 5Honcharenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoSorochanH − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.938.3+6.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 828 vs 247 / 43951.5%56.3%426 / 828 vs 247 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.73/Sorochan 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:33S. Honcharenko—118912113I. Sorochan—611111062
WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko—1111118113I. Sorochan—58131192
WAug 19 · 10:00S. Honcharenko—1111113I. Sorochan—4880
WAug 19 · 05:30S. Honcharenko—1211113I. Sorochan—10690
WAug 18 · 09:58S. Honcharenko—11119123I. Sorochan—7811101
WAug 18 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—15121111113I. Sorochan—171071362
WAug 10 · 16:58S. Honcharenko—71111113I. Sorochan—119461
WAug 10 · 13:30S. Honcharenko—11118113I. Sorochan—861151
LAug 2 · 06:28S. Honcharenko—61111772I. Sorochan—118811113
WJul 12 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—1181112113I. Sorochan—91181482
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
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