TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073431
Played Sep 4Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311511––––
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 56.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 8–7 Viacheslav Simchuk Viacheslav Simchuk has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1389 vs Simchuk 1381
Dubinin
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 80% vs Simchuk 40%
Dubinin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 80% vs Simchuk 40%
Dubinin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin +1 · Simchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 2.10 / Simchuk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Simchuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073431
Dubinin2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Simchuk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite73% won 109 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it93% 77 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin4wins
AwaySimchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin50%3 of 6
AwaySimchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin6Simchuk4n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S2Dubinin3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Dubinin4Simchuk6n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S4Dubinin4Simchuk2n = 6Dubinin took 4 of 6
S5Dubinin1Simchuk3n = 4Simchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSimchukD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.0−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 445 vs 276 / 45051.5%61.3%229 / 445 vs 276 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukDubinin 2.10/Simchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin—111111942V. Simchuk—513811113
LAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin—11137492V. Simchuk—6111111113
WAug 24 · 12:00I. Dubinin—11811123V. Simchuk—6118101
LAug 17 · 13:30I. Dubinin—81070V. Simchuk—1112113
LAug 6 · 17:08I. Dubinin—7370V. Simchuk—1111113
LAug 6 · 16:00I. Dubinin—5970V. Simchuk—1111113
WJul 17 · 16:59I. Dubinin—1414123V. Simchuk—1212100
WJul 17 · 14:30I. Dubinin—61111113V. Simchuk—115791
LJun 25 · 17:33I. Dubinin—11391292V. Simchuk—6111110113
WJun 25 · 12:00I. Dubinin—114911143V. Simchuk—911119122
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113WAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113LAug 30 · 14:30V. Simchuk1.2865111192Y. Zvolynskyi3.50111178103WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk2.25591131S. Sideltsev1.5711115113WAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin2.2011137492V. Simchuk1.616111111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.