TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055223
Played Sep 1Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111412118119––
Petr Kolesnik
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Kolesnik at 76.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 5–19 Petr Kolesnik Ihor Dubinin has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kolesnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-19 in 24
Kolesnik
Wrong
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1372 vs Kolesnik 1564
Kolesnik
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 100% vs Kolesnik 80%
Dubinin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 60% vs Kolesnik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin +5 · Kolesnik +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kolesnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 3.40 / Kolesnik 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kolesnik)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055223
Dubinin3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Kolesnik1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 91 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it86% 70 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin1wins
AwayKolesnik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin25%1 of 4
AwayKolesnik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin4Kolesnik6n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S2Dubinin3Kolesnik7n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S3Dubinin3Kolesnik7n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S4Dubinin1Kolesnik6n = 7Kolesnik took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininKolesnikD − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.340.8−9.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 442 vs 184 / 32751.4%56.3%227 / 442 vs 184 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikDubinin 3.40/Kolesnik 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Kolesnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 13:00I. Dubinin—5350P. Kolesnik—1111113
WJul 22 · 16:58I. Dubinin—12134133P. Kolesnik—101111111
LJul 22 · 15:00I. Dubinin—111211172P. Kolesnik—614411113
LJul 10 · 16:30I. Dubinin—1111881P. Kolesnik—13811113
LJul 3 · 16:30I. Dubinin—111196112P. Kolesnik—881111133
LJun 20 · 15:00I. Dubinin—5180P. Kolesnik—1111113
LApr 16 · 13:00I. Dubinin—113941P. Kolesnik—61111113
LApr 10 · 16:00I. Dubinin—1181111P. Kolesnik—13117113
LMar 30 · 15:00I. Dubinin—51270P. Kolesnik—1114113
LMar 18 · 14:30I. Dubinin—5111171P. Kolesnik—11137113
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113WAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 2 · 10:52P. Kolesnik3.2512930S. Sideltsev1.331411113LSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev2.00912811123P. Kolesnik1.731110114102WSep 2 · 08:00P. Kolesnik1.251111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.756840WSep 2 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.101111113N. Priadko1.678770WSep 2 · 05:00P. Kolesnik1.331111113M. Pohorilyi3.256950LSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik1.28115881M. Pohorilyi3.5081111113LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.1014951372N. Priadko1.6712111111113WSep 1 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.5057111182P. Kolesnik1.28111158113WSep 1 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev4.336930P. Kolesnik1.201111113WAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.