TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061579
Played Sep 2Finished
Petr Kolesnik
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119115––––
Mykola Pohorilyi
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kolesnik above · Mykola Pohorilyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Petr Kolesnik at 73.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kolesnik 36–10 Mykola Pohorilyi Mykola Pohorilyi has won 10 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kolesnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-10 in 46
Kolesnik
Correct
gap of 26 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnik 1514 vs Pohorilyi 1414
Kolesnik
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnik 40% vs Pohorilyi 60%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnik 40% vs Pohorilyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnik -3 · Pohorilyi +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kolesnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohorilyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnik 1.33 / Pohorilyi 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kolesnik)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13061579
Kolesnik1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 88 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Pohorilyi3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 20 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back5% 3 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnik9wins
AwayPohorilyi1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnik88.9%8 of 9
AwayPohorilyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnik9Pohorilyi1n = 10Kolesnik took 9 of 10
S2Kolesnik6Pohorilyi4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnik6Pohorilyi4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S4Kolesnik4Pohorilyi3n = 7Kolesnik took 4 of 7
S5Kolesnik3Pohorilyi0n = 3Kolesnik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnikPohorilyiK − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.734.9+5.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnikPohorilyiBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 330 vs 349 / 61555.8%56.8%184 / 330 vs 349 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikKolesnik 1.33/Pohorilyi 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Kolesnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik—115881M. Pohorilyi—81111113
WSep 1 · 14:00P. Kolesnik—111158113M. Pohorilyi—57111182
WAug 28 · 09:00P. Kolesnik—1111113M. Pohorilyi—6790
WAug 27 · 10:28P. Kolesnik—1411113M. Pohorilyi—12820
WAug 27 · 08:00P. Kolesnik—11613113M. Pohorilyi—9111191
WAug 26 · 14:00P. Kolesnik—1013911113M. Pohorilyi—121111792
WAug 21 · 08:00P. Kolesnik—118116113M. Pohorilyi—41171172
WAug 20 · 14:00P. Kolesnik—12128113M. Pohorilyi—10101191
WAug 13 · 17:34P. Kolesnik—1211113M. Pohorilyi—10390
WAug 13 · 16:30P. Kolesnik—11811113M. Pohorilyi—311881
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 2 · 10:52P. Kolesnik3.2512930S. Sideltsev1.331411113LSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev2.00912811123P. Kolesnik1.731110114102WSep 2 · 08:00P. Kolesnik1.251111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.756840WSep 2 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.101111113N. Priadko1.678770LSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik1.28115881M. Pohorilyi3.5081111113LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.1014951372N. Priadko1.6712111111113LSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.5057111182P. Kolesnik1.28111158113WSep 1 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev4.336930P. Kolesnik1.201111113WAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160LSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi3.0071111113O. Torianyk1.36117561WSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik1.28115881M. Pohorilyi3.5081111113LSep 1 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.5057111182P. Kolesnik1.28111158113
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