TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055058
Played Sep 1Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111113118116116
Yurii Urezchenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Yurii Urezchenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 56.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 61–66 Yurii Urezchenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 61 of their 127 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-66 in 127
Urezchenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1310 vs Urezchenko 1128
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 80% vs Urezchenko 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 70% vs Urezchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -1 · Urezchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Honcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urezchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.61 / Urezchenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13055058
Honcharenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 91 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it84% 73 of 87
Urezchenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 40 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko4wins
AwayUrezchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderUrezchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko80%4 of 5
AwayUrezchenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko5Urezchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Honcharenko4Urezchenko6n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Urezchenko6n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko3Urezchenko5n = 8Urezchenko took 5 of 8
S5Honcharenko2Urezchenko1n = 3Honcharenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoUrezchenkoH − UBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.238.6+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoUrezchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 815 vs 210 / 47351.2%44.4%417 / 815 vs 210 / 473Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.61/Urezchenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—10119101Y. Urezchenko—12811123
WAug 25 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—128115113Y. Urezchenko—101161172
LAug 24 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—11111061Y. Urezchenko—51312113
LAug 19 · 07:00S. Honcharenko—611911112Y. Urezchenko—117114133
WJul 21 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—111112113Y. Urezchenko—3131081
LJul 20 · 10:34S. Honcharenko—9111091Y. Urezchenko—11312113
WJul 20 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—1110612113Y. Urezchenko—712111072
WJul 13 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—1111113Y. Urezchenko—7560
LJul 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—471191Y. Urezchenko—11119113
LJul 8 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—9480Y. Urezchenko—1111113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123
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