TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427719
Played Aug 14Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117711711––
Andrii Obishchenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Andrii Obishchenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 57.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 11–3 Andrii Obishchenko Andrii Obishchenko has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:45What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1576 vs Obishchenko 1633
Obishchenko
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 20% vs Obishchenko 60%
Obishchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 30% vs Obishchenko 70%
Obishchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -3 · Obishchenko +2
Kovshun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.73 / Obishchenko 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kovshun)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427719
Kovshun1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it76% 60 of 79
Obishchenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun8wins
AwayObishchenko2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun75%6 of 8
AwayObishchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun8Obishchenko2n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S2Kovshun3Obishchenko7n = 10Obishchenko took 7 of 10
S3Kovshun8Obishchenko2n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S4Kovshun6Obishchenko4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S5Kovshun3Obishchenko2n = 5Kovshun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunObishchenkoK − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.040.3+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunObishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 667 vs 70 / 13554.4%51.9%363 / 667 vs 70 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.73/Obishchenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Obishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 18 · 06:35Y. Kovshun—1111111182A. Obishchenko—513413113
WJul 14 · 09:05Y. Kovshun—81111113A. Obishchenko—118881
WJul 12 · 07:30Y. Kovshun—119114113A. Obishchenko—71161162
LMay 31 · 11:05Y. Kovshun—1113116102A. Obishchenko—515911123
WDec 7 · 09:30Y. Kovshun—11411113A. Obishchenko—911761
WOct 19 · 09:35Y. Kovshun—361111143A. Obishchenko—111189122
WOct 12 · 11:05Y. Kovshun—11114113A. Obishchenko—591151
WOct 9 · 16:40Y. Kovshun—11511113A. Obishchenko—511781
WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Kovshun—1211711113A. Obishchenko—108111382
WSep 27 · 11:20Y. Kovshun—11811113A. Obishchenko—911591
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112
A. Obishchenko10
WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780WAug 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.2011118113A. Troyan4.33591111LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.9191111532Y. Holoborodko1.80119911113LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
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