TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428021
Played Aug 14Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115119811111––
Andrey Troyan
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 87.1% is still 87.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
87.1%
87.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 67 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 87.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 14–0 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 0 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Obishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-0 in 14
Obishchenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1606 vs Troyan 1610
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 40% vs Troyan 60%
Troyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 50% vs Troyan 70%
Troyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko -2 · Troyan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Obishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.20 / Troyan 4.33
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Obishchenko)+8.8pp
Setka Cup · #12428021
Obishchenko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 27 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Troyan4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 56 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeObishchenko10wins
AwayTroyan0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderObishchenko leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObishchenko100%9 of 9
AwayTroyann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obishchenko9Troyan1n = 10Obishchenko took 9 of 10
S2Obishchenko9Troyan1n = 10Obishchenko took 9 of 10
S3Obishchenko9Troyan1n = 10Obishchenko took 9 of 10
S4Obishchenko2Troyan1n = 3Obishchenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricObishchenkoTroyanO − TBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.625.3+10.3per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 133 vs 459 / 97151.1%47.3%68 / 133 vs 459 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.20/Troyan 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.1%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Obishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko—1111113A. Troyan—6880
WMay 14 · 08:05A. Obishchenko—1111113A. Troyan—6640
WMay 4 · 08:05A. Obishchenko—1111113A. Troyan—7840
WMay 2 · 09:05A. Obishchenko—11411113A. Troyan—9116101
WJan 23 · 07:00A. Obishchenko—1212103A. Troyan—101060
WJan 2 · 09:05A. Obishchenko—1111113A. Troyan—3770
WDec 21 · 07:05A. Obishchenko—1111113A. Troyan—4460
WOct 31 · 07:20A. Obishchenko—111196113A. Troyan—97111182
WAug 2 · 07:35A. Obishchenko—21211123A. Troyan—11102101
WJul 12 · 08:20A. Obishchenko—1311113A. Troyan—11760
A. Obishchenko10
WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113WAug 14 · 11:05Y. Kovshun1.73611771A. Obishchenko2.0011711113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.9191111532Y. Holoborodko1.80119911113LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143
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