TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462077
Played Aug 20Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811311––––
Andrii Kotiash
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 53 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 55.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 1–1 Andrii Kotiash Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Obishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1625 vs Kotiash 1596
Obishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 60% vs Kotiash 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 60% vs Kotiash 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko -1 · Kotiash +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Obishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.67 / Kotiash 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Obishchenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462077
Obishchenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 29 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Kotiash2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeObishchenko1wins
AwayKotiash1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricObishchenkoKotiashO − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.042.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 134 vs 207 / 43451.5%47.7%69 / 134 vs 207 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.67/Kotiash 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—12117113A. Kotiash—1091161
LMay 9 · 05:35A. Obishchenko—11591192A. Kotiash—711118113
A. Obishchenko10
WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113WAug 14 · 11:05Y. Kovshun1.73611771A. Obishchenko2.0011711113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780WAug 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.2011118113A. Troyan4.33591111LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.9191111532Y. Holoborodko1.80119911113LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132LJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
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