TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461953
Played Aug 20Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611911––––
Yurii Volkov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Yurii Volkov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 54.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 13–7 Yurii Volkov Yurii Volkov has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Obishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Obishchenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1643 vs Volkov 1644
Volkov
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 60% vs Volkov 20%
Obishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 70% vs Volkov 30%
Obishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko +3 · Volkov -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Obishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volkov form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.80 / Volkov 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Obishchenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461953
Obishchenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 29 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Volkov1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 58 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeObishchenko4wins
AwayVolkov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObishchenko75%3 of 4
AwayVolkov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obishchenko4Volkov6n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S2Obishchenko3Volkov7n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S3Obishchenko4Volkov6n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S4Obishchenko4Volkov2n = 6Obishchenko took 4 of 6
S5Obishchenko2Volkov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricObishchenkoVolkovO − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.6−1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoVolkovBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 131 vs 419 / 78251.9%53.6%68 / 131 vs 419 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.80/Volkov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Volkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 18 · 08:05A. Obishchenko—11491272Y. Volkov—5111110113
WJul 14 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—111110113Y. Volkov—141291
LMay 21 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—9750Y. Volkov—1111113
LMay 14 · 05:05A. Obishchenko—1211121172Y. Volkov—1413109113
WMay 9 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—4141011133Y. Volkov—1112128112
LMay 4 · 05:05A. Obishchenko—61211111Y. Volkov—11149133
WMay 2 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—116119113Y. Volkov—41141192
LJan 29 · 11:30A. Obishchenko—81090Y. Volkov—1112113
LJan 23 · 05:30A. Obishchenko—6940Y. Volkov—1111113
WDec 21 · 08:35A. Obishchenko—1111113Y. Volkov—8980
A. Obishchenko10
WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772WAug 14 · 11:05Y. Kovshun1.73611771A. Obishchenko2.0011711113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780WAug 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.2011118113A. Troyan4.33591111LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.9191111532Y. Holoborodko1.80119911113LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113
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