TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462023
Played Aug 20Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12107111189111210
Arsenii Lobanov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Arsenii Lobanov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 61.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 5–0 Arsenii Lobanov Arsenii Lobanov has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Obishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Obishchenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1611 vs Lobanov 1654
Lobanov
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 40% vs Lobanov 60%
Lobanov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 50% vs Lobanov 70%
Lobanov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko -2 · Lobanov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Obishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.57 / Lobanov 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Obishchenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462023
Obishchenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 29 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Lobanov2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog57% won 8 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeObishchenko5wins
AwayLobanov0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderObishchenko leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObishchenko100%3 of 3
AwayLobanovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obishchenko3Lobanov2n = 5Obishchenko took 3 of 5
S2Obishchenko4Lobanov1n = 5Obishchenko took 4 of 5
S3Obishchenko2Lobanov3n = 5Lobanov took 3 of 5
S4Obishchenko5Lobanov0n = 5Obishchenko took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home480%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricObishchenkoLobanovO − LBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.633.4+10.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoLobanovBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 135 vs 66 / 12651.1%52.4%69 / 135 vs 66 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.57/Lobanov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Obishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WNov 9 · 07:35A. Obishchenko—11118113A. Lobanov—791111
WOct 19 · 06:05A. Obishchenko—11119113A. Lobanov—391181
WJun 1 · 10:35A. Obishchenko—611811113A. Lobanov—11511992
WMay 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko—111016113A. Lobanov—6121471
WMay 11 · 09:35A. Obishchenko—71111113A. Lobanov—117241
A. Obishchenko10
LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113WAug 14 · 11:05Y. Kovshun1.73611771A. Obishchenko2.0011711113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780WAug 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.2011118113A. Troyan4.33591111LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.9191111532Y. Holoborodko1.80119911113LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.