TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461971
Played Aug 20Finished
Arsenii Lobanov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151311117––––
Andrii Kotiash
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 60.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 1–0 Andrii Kotiash Andrii Kotiash has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lobanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1631 vs Kotiash 1599
Lobanov
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 80% vs Kotiash 60%
Lobanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 70% vs Kotiash 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -1 · Kotiash +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lobanov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.57 / Kotiash 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lobanov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461971
Lobanov1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Kotiash2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLobanov1wins
AwayKotiash0wins
Lobanov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLobanovKotiashL − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.023.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 127 vs 208 / 43652%47.7%66 / 127 vs 208 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.57/Kotiash 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov—1113113A. Kotiash—51170
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572
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