TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462137
Played Aug 20Finished
Arsenii Lobanov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111012––––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 3–2 Yevhenii Holoborodko Yevhenii Holoborodko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1661 vs Holoborodko 1549
Lobanov
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 100% vs Holoborodko 40%
Lobanov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 80% vs Holoborodko 50%
Lobanov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov +5 · Holoborodko +1
Lobanov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.83 / Holoborodko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobanov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462137
Lobanov1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Holoborodko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLobanov3wins
AwayHoloborodko2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderLobanov leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanov100%3 of 3
AwayHoloborodkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov3Holoborodko2n = 5Lobanov took 3 of 5
S2Lobanov2Holoborodko3n = 5Holoborodko took 3 of 5
S3Lobanov3Holoborodko2n = 5Lobanov took 3 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricLobanovHoloborodkoL − HBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match32.231.0+1.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 122 vs 285 / 54652.5%52.2%64 / 122 vs 285 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.83/Holoborodko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJan 3 · 11:35A. Lobanov—1110118113Y. Holoborodko—91291162
LDec 30 · 08:05A. Lobanov—8850Y. Holoborodko—1111113
WDec 29 · 05:30A. Lobanov—1111133Y. Holoborodko—87110
WDec 26 · 12:00A. Lobanov—1111113Y. Holoborodko—4570
LDec 24 · 05:30A. Lobanov—5880Y. Holoborodko—1111113
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113WAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113
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