TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461991
Played Aug 20Finished
Arsenii Lobanov
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711211119113
Andrey Troyan
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 87 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 67.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 9–6 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lobanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Lobanov
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1645 vs Troyan 1611
Lobanov
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 60% vs Troyan 20%
Lobanov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 60% vs Troyan 40%
Lobanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -1 · Troyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Lobanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.40 / Troyan 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Lobanov)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461991
Lobanov1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Troyan2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 56 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobanov6wins
AwayTroyan4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLobanov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanov80%4 of 5
AwayTroyan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Lobanov8Troyan2n = 10Lobanov took 8 of 10
S3Lobanov5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S4Lobanov4Troyan3n = 7Lobanov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobanovTroyanL − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.6−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 125 vs 459 / 97052%47.3%65 / 125 vs 459 / 970Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.40/Troyan 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 05:05A. Lobanov—11119113A. Troyan—971191
LJul 31 · 10:49A. Lobanov—713161A. Troyan—111111113
WJul 31 · 08:05A. Lobanov—1113123A. Troyan—711100
WJul 27 · 09:05A. Lobanov—61216113A. Troyan—11101491
WJul 24 · 05:35A. Lobanov—21211113A. Troyan—1110761
LApr 11 · 11:35A. Lobanov—11112472A. Troyan—751111113
WFeb 22 · 12:35A. Lobanov—1111113A. Troyan—6770
WJan 3 · 07:35A. Lobanov—161110113A. Troyan—1481261
LDec 30 · 09:05A. Lobanov—98100A. Troyan—1111123
LDec 29 · 11:00A. Lobanov—1101191A. Troyan—11127113
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892
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