TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477831
Played Aug 23Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111311511112311
Arsenii Lobanov
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
7111311511112311
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 6–11 Arsenii Lobanov Yaroslav Kovshun has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lobanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Lobanov
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1588 vs Lobanov 1631
Lobanov
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 20% vs Lobanov 40%
Lobanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 50% vs Lobanov 70%
Lobanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +1 · Lobanov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lobanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 2.20 / Lobanov 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lobanov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12477831
Kovshun2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 40 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Lobanov1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun6wins
AwayLobanov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun85.7%6 of 7
AwayLobanov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun7Lobanov3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Kovshun4Lobanov6n = 10Lobanov took 6 of 10
S3Kovshun5Lobanov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovshun4Lobanov2n = 6Kovshun took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunLobanovK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.835.6+0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunLobanovBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 652 vs 66 / 12754%52%352 / 652 vs 66 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovKovshun 2.20/Lobanov 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 09:05Y. Kovshun—11118113A. Lobanov—491171
LJul 25 · 05:35Y. Kovshun—561161A. Lobanov—11119113
WJul 24 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—1111113A. Lobanov—9690
LJul 4 · 10:00Y. Kovshun—11891152A. Lobanov—811119113
WNov 15 · 11:35Y. Kovshun—11151083A. Lobanov—5131261
WOct 19 · 08:05Y. Kovshun—1111113A. Lobanov—4780
WSep 6 · 04:30Y. Kovshun—116125113A. Lobanov—811101142
LMay 7 · 12:10Y. Kovshun—91560A. Lobanov—1117113
LMay 3 · 10:40Y. Kovshun—7760A. Lobanov—1111113
WApr 30 · 16:10Y. Kovshun—11513113A. Lobanov—8111181
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
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