TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462054
Played Aug 20Finished
Arsenii Lobanov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161191618511911
Yurii Volkov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Yurii Volkov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 107 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 63.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 9–7 Yurii Volkov Yurii Volkov has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lobanov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Lobanov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1655 vs Volkov 1669
Volkov
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 80% vs Volkov 40%
Lobanov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 70% vs Volkov 50%
Lobanov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov +1 · Volkov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lobanov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.50 / Volkov 2.50
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lobanov)-4.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12462054
Lobanov1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Volkov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 58 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobanov6wins
AwayVolkov4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLobanov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanov83.3%5 of 6
AwayVolkov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov6Volkov4n = 10Lobanov took 6 of 10
S2Lobanov6Volkov4n = 10Lobanov took 6 of 10
S3Lobanov6Volkov4n = 10Lobanov took 6 of 10
S4Lobanov4Volkov2n = 6Lobanov took 4 of 6
S5Lobanov2Volkov3n = 5Volkov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobanovVolkovL − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.736.4+4.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovVolkovBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 124 vs 421 / 78452.4%53.7%65 / 124 vs 421 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.50/Volkov 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov—111110113Y. Volkov—711241
WAug 8 · 06:05A. Lobanov—1111113Y. Volkov—9650
WJul 31 · 05:33A. Lobanov—1111811113Y. Volkov—61311792
LJul 27 · 07:05A. Lobanov—119101172Y. Volkov—511129113
LJul 25 · 06:35A. Lobanov—105140Y. Volkov—1211163
LJul 24 · 06:35A. Lobanov—31111972Y. Volkov—117911113
WJul 4 · 04:30A. Lobanov—511114113Y. Volkov—11691182
WApr 11 · 05:05A. Lobanov—1111113Y. Volkov—5690
WApr 4 · 11:05A. Lobanov—1117113Y. Volkov—21570
LMar 14 · 11:30A. Lobanov—89111182Y. Volkov—111197113
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123WAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113LAug 8 · 10:35A. Lobanov1.40111110113Y. Volkov2.75711241
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