TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427919
Played Aug 14Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119119511311
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 90 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 1–3 Yevhenii Holoborodko Andrii Obishchenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:54What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1643 vs Holoborodko 1546
Obishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 60% vs Holoborodko 20%
Obishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 60% vs Holoborodko 30%
Obishchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko -1 · Holoborodko -4
Holoborodko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holoborodko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.91 / Holoborodko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holoborodko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12427919
Obishchenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 4 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back40% 2 of 5
Holoborodko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 133 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it71% 80 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeObishchenko1wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obishchenko2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
S2Obishchenko2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
S3Obishchenko2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
S4Obishchenko1Holoborodko3n = 4Holoborodko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricObishchenkoHoloborodkoO − HBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.238.5−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 136 vs 281 / 53852.2%52.2%71 / 136 vs 281 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoObishchenko 1.91/Holoborodko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko—91111532Y. Holoborodko—119911113
LJul 12 · 04:30A. Obishchenko—117691Y. Holoborodko—41111113
LJan 2 · 06:35A. Obishchenko—116961Y. Holoborodko—81111113
WDec 21 · 12:35A. Obishchenko—81111113Y. Holoborodko—116261
A. Obishchenko10
WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113WAug 14 · 11:05Y. Kovshun1.73611771A. Obishchenko2.0011711113WAug 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.361411113R. Sopivnyk3.0012780WAug 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.2011118113A. Troyan4.33591111LAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WJul 18 · 11:05A. Obishchenko1.9112117113A. Kotiash1.801091161
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772
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