TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384698
Played Aug 9Finished
Roman Sveshnykov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118116––––
Dmytro Novik
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Sveshnykov to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Dmytro Novik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Roman Sveshnykov at 69.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 9–9 Dmytro Novik Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sveshnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1272 vs Novik 1047
Sveshnykov
Correct
both rated, 225 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 40% vs Novik 20%
Sveshnykov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 70% vs Novik 40%
Sveshnykov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov -1 · Novik -3
Novik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sveshnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novik form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 1.44 / Novik 2.63
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Sveshnykov)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384698
Sveshnykov1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite82% won 28 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Novik2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 19 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov5wins
AwayNovik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov100%4 of 4
AwayNovik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov4Novik6n = 10Novik took 6 of 10
S2Sveshnykov7Novik3n = 10Sveshnykov took 7 of 10
S3Sveshnykov4Novik6n = 10Novik took 6 of 10
S4Sveshnykov4Novik3n = 7Sveshnykov took 4 of 7
S5Sveshnykov1Novik2n = 3Novik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovNovikS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.3+2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovNovikBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 247 vs 117 / 29038.1%40.3%94 / 247 vs 117 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.634.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SveshnykovSveshnykov 1.44/Novik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Sveshnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sveshnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 13 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov4314117113D. Novik351241181
WMar 9 · 09:00R. Sveshnykov4313127113D. Novik3911101171
LFeb 27 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov49911118102D. Novik43113611123
LFeb 25 · 08:00R. Sveshnykov399111091D. Novik3911512113
WFeb 7 · 18:15R. Sveshnykov4211111193D. Novik33813661
LFeb 7 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov47711111082D. Novik43116312113
WFeb 4 · 11:35R. Sveshnykov341111123D. Novik2266100
LFeb 4 · 07:30R. Sveshnykov182970D. Novik331111113
LFeb 2 · 10:30R. Sveshnykov198830D. Novik331111113
WFeb 1 · 17:00R. Sveshnykov47611811113D. Novik3311411612
R. Sveshnykov10
WSep 13 · 17:29A. Danylov3.255111131R. Sveshnykov1.3311813113WSep 13 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.1131111113S. Zherykhin6.00119991LSep 13 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.25141151162A. Danylov3.75164116113WSep 13 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov1.611111123V. Khyzhnyak2.2048100LSep 13 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.61118661O. Levytskyi2.2071111103WSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133WSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.91101111113D. Novik1.80128971LAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko1.5771111113D. Novik2.25118571LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891WAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2.503640D. Novik1.501111113LAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novik2.759580V. Matviichuk1.401111113
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