TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352335
Played Aug 3Finished
Oleg Shvydkyi
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611411––––
Dmytro Novik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Novik to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Shvydkyi above · Dmytro Novik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Dmytro Novik at 64.5%
46 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Shvydkyi 5–9 Dmytro Novik Oleg Shvydkyi has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Novik
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shvydkyi 1064 vs Novik 1047
Shvydkyi
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shvydkyi 20% vs Novik 40%
Novik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shvydkyi 30% vs Novik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shvydkyi -4 · Novik -1
Shvydkyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Novik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShvydkyi 2.50 / Novik 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Novik)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12352335
Shvydkyi2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 10 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Novik1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 38 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShvydkyi3wins
AwayNovik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShvydkyi60%3 of 5
AwayNovik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shvydkyi5Novik5n = 10split evenly
S2Shvydkyi6Novik4n = 10Shvydkyi took 6 of 10
S3Shvydkyi1Novik9n = 10Novik took 9 of 10
S4Shvydkyi3Novik3n = 6split evenly
S5Shvydkyi0Novik3n = 3Novik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricShvydkyiNovikS − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.038.2−7.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShvydkyiNovikBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 175 vs 117 / 29037.1%40.3%65 / 175 vs 117 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match33.634.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovikShvydkyi 2.50/Novik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Novik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi133640D. Novik331111113
LJul 13 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi142750D. Novik331111113
LMay 11 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi4551212792D. Novik5311101011113
WMar 18 · 10:58O. Shvydkyi3911116113D. Novik28851141
LMar 18 · 06:30O. Shvydkyi123540D. Novik331111113
LFeb 1 · 15:00O. Shvydkyi43111131172D. Novik52981113113
LJan 11 · 17:00O. Shvydkyi2010550D. Novik341211113
WDec 6 · 06:30O. Shvydkyi4011117113D. Novik36881191
LJun 14 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi4411129842D. Novik518101111113
WMay 31 · 17:36O. Shvydkyi4011115133D. Novik292511111
O. Shvydkyi10
WSep 14 · 06:00S. Zherykhin1.672087111O. Shvydkyi2.10181111133WSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113LSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 08:30S. Zherykhin2.2512811113O. Shvydkyi1.571011791LSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113LSep 10 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.0011811113O. Shvydkyi1.73311281WSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WAug 16 · 16:00V. Yarovyi4.501159101O. Shvydkyi1.1781111123LAug 16 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.401111113O. Shvydkyi2.759830LAug 16 · 13:00M. Zavoloka1.611111113O. Shvydkyi2.206950
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.91101111113D. Novik1.80128971LAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko1.5771111113D. Novik2.25118571LAug 9 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.441111113D. Novik2.634860LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891LAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novik2.759580V. Matviichuk1.401111113
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