TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440582
Played Aug 16Finished
Anatoliy Lysyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118113––––
Oleg Shvydkyi
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Oleg Shvydkyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 53 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 73.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 14–9 Oleg Shvydkyi Oleg Shvydkyi has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lysyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Lysyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1148 vs Shvydkyi 1059
Lysyi
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 0% vs Shvydkyi 40%
Shvydkyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 50% vs Shvydkyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -5 · Shvydkyi -2
Lysyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lysyi) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 1.40 / Shvydkyi 2.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Lysyi)+9.0pp
Setka Cup · #12440582
Lysyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 52 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it80% 40 of 50
Shvydkyi2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 16 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi6wins
AwayShvydkyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLysyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi62.5%5 of 8
AwayShvydkyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi8Shvydkyi2n = 10Lysyi took 8 of 10
S2Lysyi6Shvydkyi4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S3Lysyi6Shvydkyi4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S4Lysyi4Shvydkyi3n = 7Lysyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiShvydkyiL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.931.7+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiShvydkyiBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 388 vs 68 / 18542.3%36.8%164 / 388 vs 68 / 185Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.333.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysyiLysyi 1.40/Shvydkyi 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Lysyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 09:00A. Lysyi—118871O. Shvydkyi—31111113
WAug 10 · 06:30A. Lysyi—1112113O. Shvydkyi—51080
WAug 3 · 08:30A. Lysyi—1111113O. Shvydkyi—9940
WJul 26 · 05:30A. Lysyi—91111113O. Shvydkyi—113581
WMay 11 · 10:39A. Lysyi—11912113O. Shvydkyi—5111071
WMar 23 · 09:30A. Lysyi—11411113O. Shvydkyi—611931
WFeb 1 · 16:30A. Lysyi—1111113O. Shvydkyi—6730
LDec 6 · 08:30A. Lysyi—117681O. Shvydkyi—31111113
LSep 15 · 06:30A. Lysyi—1111311122O. Shvydkyi—136117143
LAug 23 · 08:30A. Lysyi—11117592O. Shvydkyi—471111113
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113WSep 7 · 08:30V. Khyzhnyak5.00531261A. Lysyi1.14111110113WSep 7 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.7311811113S. Zherykhin2.00911481LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063
O. Shvydkyi10
WSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WAug 16 · 16:00V. Yarovyi4.501159101O. Shvydkyi1.1781111123LAug 16 · 13:00M. Zavoloka1.611111113O. Shvydkyi2.206950LAug 16 · 12:00A. Danylov3.407111011113O. Shvydkyi1.3011512882WAug 14 · 10:04S. Honcharenko1.6796111462O. Shvydkyi2.101111812113WAug 14 · 08:30O. Levytskyi1.40111191172O. Shvydkyi2.75136116113LAug 14 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi1.91861161S. Honcharenko1.8011116113LAug 14 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.751111113O. Shvydkyi1.403760WAug 14 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.5011412113V. Matviichuk1.504111061LAug 10 · 10:00O. Shvydkyi3.257460Y. Urezchenko1.331111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Lysyi
Nothing scheduled
O. Shvydkyi
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