TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428096
Played Aug 14Finished
Oleg Shvydkyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611116611––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:25 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Shvydkyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 59.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Shvydkyi 13–20 Serhii Honcharenko Oleg Shvydkyi has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:25What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shvydkyi 1054 vs Honcharenko 1301
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shvydkyi 40% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shvydkyi 30% vs Honcharenko 80%
Honcharenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shvydkyi -1 · Honcharenko +3
Honcharenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shvydkyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShvydkyi 1.91 / Honcharenko 1.80
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Honcharenko)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428096
Shvydkyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 13 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Honcharenko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 84 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it83% 67 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShvydkyi5wins
AwayHoncharenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShvydkyi80%4 of 5
AwayHoncharenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shvydkyi5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Shvydkyi6Honcharenko4n = 10Shvydkyi took 6 of 10
S3Shvydkyi4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Shvydkyi3Honcharenko2n = 5Shvydkyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShvydkyiHoncharenkoS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.934.7−0.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShvydkyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 180 vs 403 / 81036.7%49.8%66 / 180 vs 403 / 810Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoShvydkyi 1.91/Honcharenko 1.80
Hit
What we said
59.5%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 06:30O. Shvydkyi—1113153S. Honcharenko—811130
LJul 26 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi—79121142S. Honcharenko—1111107113
LJul 13 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi—117351S. Honcharenko—51111113
WMay 29 · 09:00O. Shvydkyi—8111111113S. Honcharenko—11613062
WMay 11 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—8880
LApr 27 · 05:00O. Shvydkyi—11790S. Honcharenko—1311113
LMar 23 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi—101270S. Honcharenko—1214113
WMar 18 · 09:00O. Shvydkyi—11111113S. Honcharenko—861151
WJan 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—8960
LAug 26 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi—311631S. Honcharenko—11911113
O. Shvydkyi10
WSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WAug 16 · 16:00V. Yarovyi4.501159101O. Shvydkyi1.1781111123LAug 16 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.401111113O. Shvydkyi2.759830LAug 16 · 13:00M. Zavoloka1.611111113O. Shvydkyi2.206950LAug 16 · 12:00A. Danylov3.407111011113O. Shvydkyi1.3011512882WAug 14 · 10:04S. Honcharenko1.6796111462O. Shvydkyi2.101111812113WAug 14 · 08:30O. Levytskyi1.40111191172O. Shvydkyi2.75136116113LAug 14 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.751111113O. Shvydkyi1.403760WAug 14 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.5011412113V. Matviichuk1.504111061LAug 10 · 10:00O. Shvydkyi3.257460Y. Urezchenko1.331111113
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113LSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113WSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.5041280S. Honcharenko2.501114113WSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113WSep 9 · 05:30I. Sorochan2.38961251S. Honcharenko1.53111110113LSep 8 · 10:33M. Zavoloka1.5714711113S. Honcharenko2.251211491LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.2511119113V. Hyriavyi3.75671191WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LAug 14 · 10:04S. Honcharenko1.6796111462O. Shvydkyi2.101111812113
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