TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100151
Played Sep 9Finished
Ihor Sorochan
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9116111210511––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Sorochan above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 61.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Sorochan 27–43 Serhii Honcharenko Ihor Sorochan has won 27 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-43 in 70
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sorochan 1290 vs Honcharenko 1355
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sorochan 20% vs Honcharenko 40%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sorochan 40% vs Honcharenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sorochan -3 · Honcharenko -2
Sorochan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSorochan 2.38 / Honcharenko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Honcharenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100151
Sorochan2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Honcharenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 106 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 85 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSorochan0wins
AwayHoncharenko10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSorochan0%0 of 3
AwayHoncharenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sorochan3Honcharenko7n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Sorochan1Honcharenko9n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S3Sorochan3Honcharenko7n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Sorochan2Honcharenko4n = 6Honcharenko took 4 of 6
S5Sorochan0Honcharenko3n = 3Honcharenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSorochanHoncharenkoS − HBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.642.5−9.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSorochanHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 443 vs 435 / 84156.2%51.7%249 / 443 vs 435 / 841Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoSorochan 2.38/Honcharenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:00I. Sorochan—7360S. Honcharenko—1111113
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan—11111111S. Honcharenko—91313113
LSep 6 · 13:30I. Sorochan—8860S. Honcharenko—1111113
LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan—611111062S. Honcharenko—118912113
LSep 5 · 15:00I. Sorochan—58131192S. Honcharenko—1111118113
LAug 19 · 10:00I. Sorochan—4880S. Honcharenko—1111113
LAug 19 · 05:30I. Sorochan—10690S. Honcharenko—1211113
LAug 18 · 09:58I. Sorochan—7811101S. Honcharenko—11119123
LAug 18 · 08:30I. Sorochan—171071362S. Honcharenko—15121111113
LAug 10 · 16:58I. Sorochan—119461S. Honcharenko—71111113
I. Sorochan10
WSep 9 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8358111182I. Sorochan1.83111189113LSep 7 · 16:00I. Sorochan3.0010630S. Sideltsev1.361211113LSep 7 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.8091411113I. Sorochan1.911112591LSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360WSep 7 · 12:30N. Priadko2.201111391I. Sorochan1.6113711113LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 8 · 10:33M. Zavoloka1.5714711113S. Honcharenko2.251211491LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.2511119113V. Hyriavyi3.75671191WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.739680M. Zavoloka2.001111113LSep 7 · 17:39N. Priadko1.611311113S. Honcharenko2.2011890WSep 7 · 16:30S. Honcharenko3.251151112113I. Dubinin1.3351161492WSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860
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