TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089387
Played Sep 7Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1155111161214119
Ihor Dubinin
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ihor Dubinin at 74.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 11–52 Ihor Dubinin Serhii Honcharenko has won 11 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Dubinin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-52 in 63
Dubinin
Wrong
gap of 41 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1416 vs Dubinin 1363
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 80% vs Dubinin 40%
Honcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 80% vs Dubinin 40%
Honcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +2 · Dubinin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Dubinin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 3.25 / Dubinin 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Dubinin)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13089387
Honcharenko3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Dubinin1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko4wins
AwayDubinin6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayDubinin71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko3Dubinin7n = 10Dubinin took 7 of 10
S2Honcharenko7Dubinin3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Dubinin6n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko3Dubinin5n = 8Dubinin took 5 of 8
S5Honcharenko2Dubinin3n = 5Dubinin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoDubininH − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.041.6−0.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 835 vs 227 / 44751.7%50.8%432 / 835 vs 227 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DubininHoncharenko 3.25/Dubinin 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.4%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 12:00S. Honcharenko—81080I. Dubinin—1112113
LJul 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko—712961I. Dubinin—111011113
LJun 18 · 13:00S. Honcharenko—51111992I. Dubinin—119911113
WJan 23 · 17:30S. Honcharenko—1171011113I. Dubinin—81112782
WJan 3 · 11:35S. Honcharenko—611117123I. Dubinin—118511102
WJan 3 · 10:30S. Honcharenko—41111113I. Dubinin—117381
LDec 22 · 18:00S. Honcharenko—911147102I. Dubinin—1151211123
WDec 22 · 15:30S. Honcharenko—11116113I. Dubinin—981191
LNov 21 · 10:30S. Honcharenko—98110I. Dubinin—1111133
LOct 28 · 07:00S. Honcharenko—111197152I. Dubinin—341111163
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 7 · 17:39N. Priadko1.611311113S. Honcharenko2.2011890WSep 7 · 15:30S. Honcharenko2.101161011123N. Priadko1.67411128102WSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360LSep 7 · 13:00S. Honcharenko4.3313513842S. Sideltsev1.2011111111113WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113
I. Dubinin10
WSep 7 · 17:08S. Sideltsev2.6310960I. Dubinin1.441211113WSep 7 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.8091411113I. Sorochan1.911112591LSep 7 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.83114891N. Priadko1.8381111113WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.10114511113S. Sideltsev1.6791111682LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781
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