TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089204
Played Sep 7Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111412115119––
Ihor Sorochan
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ihor Dubinin at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 15–15 Ihor Sorochan Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dubinin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1353 vs Sorochan 1308
Dubinin
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 20% vs Sorochan 60%
Sorochan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 40% vs Sorochan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin -1 · Sorochan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dubinin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 1.80 / Sorochan 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dubinin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13089204
Dubinin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Sorochan1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin8wins
AwaySorochan2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin100%3 of 3
AwaySorochan28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin3Sorochan7n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S2Dubinin7Sorochan3n = 10Dubinin took 7 of 10
S3Dubinin6Sorochan4n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S4Dubinin6Sorochan1n = 7Dubinin took 6 of 7
S5Dubinin3Sorochan0n = 3Dubinin took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSorochanD − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.837.1+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 446 vs 249 / 44350.7%56.2%226 / 446 vs 249 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DubininDubinin 1.80/Sorochan 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 16:30I. Dubinin—1113512113I. Sorochan—715111092
LAug 24 · 14:30I. Dubinin—36110I. Sorochan—1111133
WJul 5 · 13:30I. Dubinin—51111113I. Sorochan—113681
WJun 2 · 14:30I. Dubinin—71113113I. Sorochan—1181151
WApr 12 · 14:30I. Dubinin—510141183I. Sorochan—111212952
WMar 30 · 12:00I. Dubinin—61114113I. Sorochan—1171281
WMar 23 · 13:00I. Dubinin—611811113I. Sorochan—11611662
WFeb 16 · 14:30I. Dubinin—1114133I. Sorochan—712110
WJan 26 · 15:30I. Dubinin—1111113I. Sorochan—2890
LNov 21 · 08:00I. Dubinin—914691I. Sorochan—111211113
I. Dubinin10
LSep 7 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.83114891N. Priadko1.8381111113WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.10114511113S. Sideltsev1.6791111682LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160
I. Sorochan10
LSep 7 · 16:00I. Sorochan3.0010630S. Sideltsev1.361211113LSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360WSep 7 · 12:30N. Priadko2.201111391I. Sorochan1.6113711113LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191
Upcoming Matches
I. Dubinin
I. Sorochan
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