TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089033
Played Sep 7Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119411511116118
Sergii Sideltsev
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 15–6 Sergii Sideltsev Sergii Sideltsev has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sideltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Dubinin
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1355 vs Sideltsev 1523
Sideltsev
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 20% vs Sideltsev 40%
Sideltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 50% vs Sideltsev 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin -4 · Sideltsev -2
Dubinin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sideltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sideltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 2.10 / Sideltsev 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sideltsev)+2.1pp
Setka Cup · #13089033
Dubinin2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 39 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back18% 12 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Sideltsev1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 102 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it100% 68 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 81 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin5wins
AwaySideltsev5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin60%3 of 5
AwaySideltsev60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin5Sideltsev5n = 10split evenly
S2Dubinin6Sideltsev4n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S3Dubinin3Sideltsev7n = 10Sideltsev took 7 of 10
S4Dubinin3Sideltsev6n = 9Sideltsev took 6 of 9
S5Dubinin3Sideltsev1n = 4Dubinin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSideltsevD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.1+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 444 vs 243 / 41350.7%58.8%225 / 444 vs 243 / 413Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevDubinin 2.10/Sideltsev 1.67
Miss
What we said
57.9%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 15:00I. Dubinin—812113113S. Sideltsev—111031162
LAug 24 · 16:00I. Dubinin—87110S. Sideltsev—1111133
LAug 6 · 13:00I. Dubinin—129491S. Sideltsev—101111113
LAug 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin—11116392S. Sideltsev—891111113
WJul 18 · 12:30I. Dubinin—1110811113S. Sideltsev—61211642
LJul 5 · 17:34I. Dubinin—1211951S. Sideltsev—14711113
LJul 5 · 16:30I. Dubinin—9711101S. Sideltsev—11115123
WJun 2 · 17:03I. Dubinin—111110113S. Sideltsev—631261
WJun 2 · 16:00I. Dubinin—91111113S. Sideltsev—117491
WMay 24 · 13:00I. Dubinin—1111115143S. Sideltsev—891311122
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113
S. Sideltsev10
LSep 5 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.501111113S. Sideltsev2.508980LSep 5 · 09:00S. Sideltsev2.2010940O. Torianyk1.611211113WSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 07:00N. Priadko3.4011711642S. Sideltsev1.30611911113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160WSep 3 · 17:03R. Hryhoriev2.63951121S. Sideltsev1.4411118113WSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.83111113113R. Hryhoriev1.831391191WSep 3 · 15:00N. Priadko2.385790S. Sideltsev1.531111113WSep 3 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov4.0076121382S. Sideltsev1.2211111011113LSep 3 · 12:30O. Levytskyi4.50111148133S. Sideltsev1.17791111112
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