TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089223
Played Sep 7Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13115111311811411
Sergii Sideltsev
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 98 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 82.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 5–17 Sergii Sideltsev Serhii Honcharenko has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Sideltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-17 in 22
Sideltsev
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1406 vs Sideltsev 1507
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 100% vs Sideltsev 40%
Honcharenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 90% vs Sideltsev 60%
Honcharenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +5 · Sideltsev -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Sideltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sideltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 4.33 / Sideltsev 1.20
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Sideltsev)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089223
Honcharenko4.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Sideltsev1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 102 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it100% 68 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 81 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko3wins
AwaySideltsev7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSideltsev leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko50%2 of 4
AwaySideltsev83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko4Sideltsev6n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S2Honcharenko1Sideltsev9n = 10Sideltsev took 9 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Sideltsev6n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko1Sideltsev5n = 6Sideltsev took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoSideltsevH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.938.6−7.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 832 vs 243 / 41451.7%58.7%430 / 832 vs 243 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevHoncharenko 4.33/Sideltsev 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—11490S. Sideltsev—1311113
LJul 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—4440S. Sideltsev—1111113
LJun 26 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—7890S. Sideltsev—1111113
LJun 17 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—118291S. Sideltsev—81111113
LJun 12 · 10:00S. Honcharenko—8811111S. Sideltsev—11118133
WJun 12 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—114119113S. Sideltsev—61191182
WJun 5 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—611114113S. Sideltsev—11791162
LMay 8 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—41070S. Sideltsev—1112113
LApr 27 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—119571S. Sideltsev—91111113
WApr 23 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—11511123S. Sideltsev—7118101
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871
S. Sideltsev10
LSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.10114511113S. Sideltsev1.6791111682LSep 5 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.501111113S. Sideltsev2.508980LSep 5 · 09:00S. Sideltsev2.2010940O. Torianyk1.611211113WSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 07:00N. Priadko3.4011711642S. Sideltsev1.30611911113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160WSep 3 · 17:03R. Hryhoriev2.63951121S. Sideltsev1.4411118113WSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.83111113113R. Hryhoriev1.831391191WSep 3 · 15:00N. Priadko2.385790S. Sideltsev1.531111113WSep 3 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov4.0076121382S. Sideltsev1.2211111011113
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