TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094565
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 60.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 95–65 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 65 of their 160 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
95-65 in 160
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 30 in 160, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1383 vs Matviichuk 1065
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 318 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Matviichuk 80%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 70% vs Matviichuk 40%
Honcharenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -2 · Matviichuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Honcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.53 / Matviichuk 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094565
Honcharenko1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 104 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it86% 83 of 97
Matviichuk2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 35 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwayMatviichuk1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%9 of 9
AwayMatviichukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko9Matviichuk1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S2Honcharenko7Matviichuk3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Matviichuk6n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko5Matviichuk2n = 7Honcharenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukH − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.930.6+8.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 838 vs 291 / 61651.7%47.2%433 / 838 vs 291 / 616Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.53/Matviichuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Matviichuk—5640
WAug 31 · 10:28S. Honcharenko—11117123V. Matviichuk—8711101
WAug 31 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—11911133V. Matviichuk—5113111
LAug 30 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—7950V. Matviichuk—1111113
WAug 27 · 12:00S. Honcharenko—11116113V. Matviichuk—861171
WAug 25 · 05:30S. Honcharenko—11511113V. Matviichuk—711461
WAug 24 · 07:00S. Honcharenko—1111910113V. Matviichuk—48111272
WAug 19 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—11116113V. Matviichuk—571131
WAug 14 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—1112113V. Matviichuk—81090
WAug 7 · 10:29S. Honcharenko—111187113V. Matviichuk—84111132
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 8 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.739680M. Zavoloka2.001111113LSep 7 · 17:39N. Priadko1.611311113S. Honcharenko2.2011890WSep 7 · 16:30S. Honcharenko3.251151112113I. Dubinin1.3351161492WSep 7 · 15:30S. Honcharenko2.101161011123N. Priadko1.67411128102WSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360LSep 7 · 13:00S. Honcharenko4.3313513842S. Sideltsev1.2011111111113WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420LSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691
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