TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100640
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511116411811––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 67 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 13–15 Valentyn Kurliuk Serhii Honcharenko has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1389 vs Kurliuk 1289
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Kurliuk 20%
Honcharenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 60% vs Kurliuk 40%
Honcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +3 · Kurliuk -2
Honcharenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.91 / Kurliuk 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Honcharenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100640
Honcharenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 75 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Kurliuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 55 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko4wins
AwayKurliuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko60%3 of 5
AwayKurliuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko5Kurliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Honcharenko4Kurliuk6n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Kurliuk6n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko4Kurliuk2n = 6Honcharenko took 4 of 6
S5Honcharenko1Kurliuk2n = 3Kurliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoKurliukH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.5−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 842 vs 146 / 29151.9%50.2%437 / 842 vs 146 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.91/Kurliuk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—9680V. Kurliuk—1111113
WAug 5 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Kurliuk—8590
LJul 30 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—6101111102V. Kurliuk—111255123
LJun 30 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—61180V. Kurliuk—1113113
WJun 26 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Kurliuk—5730
WJun 14 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—1111211113V. Kurliuk—13911992
LJun 13 · 12:30S. Honcharenko—18481152V. Kurliuk—1611115113
LApr 23 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—118971V. Kurliuk—61111113
WApr 20 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—11211113V. Kurliuk—711661
LApr 16 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—911771V. Kurliuk—11811113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.5041280S. Honcharenko2.501114113WSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113WSep 9 · 05:30I. Sorochan2.38961251S. Honcharenko1.53111110113LSep 8 · 10:33M. Zavoloka1.5714711113S. Honcharenko2.251211491LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.2511119113V. Hyriavyi3.75671191WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.739680M. Zavoloka2.001111113LSep 7 · 17:39N. Priadko1.611311113S. Honcharenko2.2011890WSep 7 · 16:30S. Honcharenko3.251151112113I. Dubinin1.3351161492
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 9 · 07:30I. Sorochan1.251111113V. Kurliuk3.759590LSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931WSep 9 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.8061111662V. Kurliuk1.91115911113LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113
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