TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100599
Played Sep 9Finished
Ihor Sorochan
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115119––––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Sorochan above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ihor Sorochan at 76.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Sorochan 10–0 Valentyn Kurliuk Valentyn Kurliuk has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Sorochan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Sorochan
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sorochan 1291 vs Kurliuk 1304
Kurliuk
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sorochan 20% vs Kurliuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sorochan 40% vs Kurliuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sorochan +1 · Kurliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Sorochan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSorochan 1.25 / Kurliuk 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Sorochan)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100599
Sorochan1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 70 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Kurliuk3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog13% won 5 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSorochan10wins
AwayKurliuk0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSorochan100%9 of 9
AwayKurliukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sorochan9Kurliuk1n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S2Sorochan7Kurliuk3n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S3Sorochan8Kurliuk2n = 10Sorochan took 8 of 10
S4Sorochan5Kurliuk1n = 6Sorochan took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSorochanKurliukS − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.029.7+9.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSorochanKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 440 vs 146 / 29056.1%50.3%247 / 440 vs 146 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanSorochan 1.25/Kurliuk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sorochan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan—61111113V. Kurliuk—117891
WAug 12 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1111113V. Kurliuk—4760
WJul 19 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1211123V. Kurliuk—109100
WJun 2 · 13:30I. Sorochan—117118123V. Kurliuk—611511102
WApr 20 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1311153V. Kurliuk—115130
WApr 2 · 06:30I. Sorochan—111110113V. Kurliuk—371271
WOct 19 · 14:00I. Sorochan—13811113V. Kurliuk—1111671
WOct 12 · 12:30I. Sorochan—1111113V. Kurliuk—5760
WSep 21 · 15:30I. Sorochan—11113103V. Kurliuk—451161
WJul 21 · 05:30I. Sorochan—11811113V. Kurliuk—811891
I. Sorochan10
WSep 9 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8358111182I. Sorochan1.83111189113LSep 9 · 05:30I. Sorochan2.38961251S. Honcharenko1.53111110113LSep 7 · 16:00I. Sorochan3.0010630S. Sideltsev1.361211113LSep 7 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.8091411113I. Sorochan1.911112591LSep 7 · 14:00S. Honcharenko1.571111113I. Sorochan2.257360WSep 7 · 12:30N. Priadko2.201111391I. Sorochan1.6113711113LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931WSep 9 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.8061111662V. Kurliuk1.91115911113LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342
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