TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105604
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleg Shvydkyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141210911118––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleg Shvydkyi above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 61.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Shvydkyi 20–25 Vasyl Matviichuk Oleg Shvydkyi has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Matviichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-25 in 45
Matviichuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shvydkyi 1064 vs Matviichuk 1084
Matviichuk
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shvydkyi 40% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shvydkyi 40% vs Matviichuk 60%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shvydkyi +1 · Matviichuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Matviichuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShvydkyi 2.20 / Matviichuk 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Matviichuk)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105604
Shvydkyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Matviichuk1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it82% 63 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShvydkyi3wins
AwayMatviichuk7wins
Matviichuk leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShvydkyi60%3 of 5
AwayMatviichuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shvydkyi5Matviichuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shvydkyi4Matviichuk6n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S3Shvydkyi3Matviichuk7n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S4Shvydkyi2Matviichuk5n = 7Matviichuk took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShvydkyiMatviichukS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.335.2−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShvydkyiMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 177 vs 290 / 61236.2%47.4%64 / 177 vs 290 / 612Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukShvydkyi 2.20/Matviichuk 1.61
Miss
What we said
61.3%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shvydkyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi—11412113V. Matviichuk—4111061
LAug 10 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi—9115101V. Matviichuk—11511123
WAug 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi—1112113V. Matviichuk—31080
LAug 7 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi—1212771V. Matviichuk—141011113
LAug 3 · 09:30O. Shvydkyi—1177101V. Matviichuk—41111123
LJul 26 · 06:30O. Shvydkyi—871121V. Matviichuk—1111863
WMay 12 · 09:00O. Shvydkyi—13117123V. Matviichuk—11611101
LApr 27 · 09:00O. Shvydkyi—7570V. Matviichuk—1111113
LJan 23 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi—9470V. Matviichuk—1111113
LJan 20 · 08:30O. Shvydkyi—115251V. Matviichuk—41111113
O. Shvydkyi10
WAug 16 · 16:00V. Yarovyi4.501159101O. Shvydkyi1.1781111123LAug 16 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.401111113O. Shvydkyi2.759830LAug 16 · 13:00M. Zavoloka1.611111113O. Shvydkyi2.206950LAug 16 · 12:00A. Danylov3.407111011113O. Shvydkyi1.3011512882WAug 14 · 10:04S. Honcharenko1.6796111462O. Shvydkyi2.101111812113WAug 14 · 08:30O. Levytskyi1.40111191172O. Shvydkyi2.75136116113LAug 14 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi1.91861161S. Honcharenko1.8011116113LAug 14 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.751111113O. Shvydkyi1.403760WAug 14 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.5011412113V. Matviichuk1.504111061LAug 10 · 10:00O. Shvydkyi3.257460Y. Urezchenko1.331111113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LAug 14 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.5011412113V. Matviichuk1.504111061
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