TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094573
Played Sep 8Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511711––––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 48 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 64.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 37–50 Vasyl Matviichuk Yurii Urezchenko has won 37 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Matviichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-50 in 87
Matviichuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1100 vs Matviichuk 1061
Urezchenko
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 60% vs Matviichuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 50% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -2 · Matviichuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Matviichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 2.75 / Matviichuk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Matviichuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094573
Urezchenko2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 45 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Matviichuk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 77 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko2wins
AwayMatviichuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMatviichuk77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko1Matviichuk9n = 10Matviichuk took 9 of 10
S2Urezchenko4Matviichuk6n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko2Matviichuk8n = 10Matviichuk took 8 of 10
S4Urezchenko3Matviichuk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoMatviichukU − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.138.0−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 477 vs 291 / 61644.4%47.2%212 / 477 vs 291 / 616Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukUrezchenko 2.75/Matviichuk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—99100V. Matviichuk—1111123
WAug 25 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—1391111113V. Matviichuk—15116472
LAug 24 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—1181061V. Matviichuk—31112113
LAug 19 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—511861V. Matviichuk—11611113
LAug 10 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—8760V. Matviichuk—1111113
WAug 10 · 06:00Y. Urezchenko—141111103V. Matviichuk—165891
LJul 21 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—31251162V. Matviichuk—1110114113
LJul 20 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—8590V. Matviichuk—1111113
LJul 12 · 15:00Y. Urezchenko—3390V. Matviichuk—1111113
LJul 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—512781V. Matviichuk—111011113
Y. Urezchenko10
LSep 8 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko1.407650V. Hyriavyi2.751111113LSep 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.4059140M. Zavoloka1.301111163WSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113WSep 7 · 09:30V. Khyzhnyak1.7311591192Y. Urezchenko2.00611114113WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420
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