TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384661
Played Aug 9Finished
Anatoliy Lysyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118119117––
Dmytro Novik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Dmytro Novik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 54.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 11–28 Dmytro Novik Anatoliy Lysyi has won 11 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-28 in 39
Novik
Wrong
gap of 17 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1198 vs Novik 1016
Lysyi
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 60% vs Novik 0%
Lysyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 50% vs Novik 20%
Lysyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -2 · Novik -5
Novik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lysyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novik form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 1.91 / Novik 1.80
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Lysyi)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384661
Lysyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 30 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Novik1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi5wins
AwayNovik5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayNovik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi6Novik4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S2Lysyi3Novik7n = 10Novik took 7 of 10
S3Lysyi6Novik4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S4Lysyi4Novik2n = 6Lysyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiNovikL − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.834.5−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiNovikBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 382 vs 117 / 29241.9%40.1%160 / 382 vs 117 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.234.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysyiLysyi 1.91/Novik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Lysyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 10:04A. Lysyi46111311113D. Novik31415571
WAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi4211911113D. Novik32411891
LAug 2 · 12:28A. Lysyi4094121142D. Novik521111109113
LJul 27 · 05:30A. Lysyi27115561D. Novik3631111113
LJul 6 · 09:58A. Lysyi31511961D. Novik4111811113
LJul 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi259790D. Novik331111113
WJul 4 · 05:30A. Lysyi371112143D. Novik28610120
WJun 27 · 08:30A. Lysyi351111133D. Novik2164110
LJun 7 · 09:59A. Lysyi168440D. Novik331111113
WJun 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi3913411113D. Novik381111971
A. Lysyi10
WSep 14 · 06:30O. Badanin1.579470A. Lysyi2.251111113WSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762LSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113WSep 7 · 08:30V. Khyzhnyak5.00531261A. Lysyi1.14111110113WSep 7 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.7311811113S. Zherykhin2.00911481LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko1.5771111113D. Novik2.25118571LAug 9 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.441111113D. Novik2.634860LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891WAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2.503640D. Novik1.501111113LAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novik2.759580V. Matviichuk1.401111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Lysyi
D. Novik
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