TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126429
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleksandr Badanin
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411711––––
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 62.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 21–11 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-11 in 32
Badanin
Wrong
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1125 vs Lysyi 1113
Badanin
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 20% vs Lysyi 60%
Lysyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 40% vs Lysyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin -1 · Lysyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Badanin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 1.57 / Lysyi 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Badanin)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126429
Badanin1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 34 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Lysyi2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 33 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadanin6wins
AwayLysyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadanin100%5 of 5
AwayLysyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Badanin5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Badanin6Lysyi4n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S4Badanin2Lysyi2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadaninLysyiB − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.329.7+2.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 328 vs 184 / 42347.6%43.5%156 / 328 vs 184 / 423Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninBadanin 1.57/Lysyi 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:30O. Badanin209470A. Lysyi331111113
LSep 7 · 05:30O. Badanin36991171A. Lysyi4211119113
WJun 22 · 10:28O. Badanin4211119113A. Lysyi32751191
LJun 22 · 06:30O. Badanin1918100A. Lysyi341111123
WJun 15 · 06:30O. Badanin4181111113A. Lysyi27115651
WApr 24 · 05:00O. Badanin331111113A. Lysyi179440
LApr 10 · 10:34O. Badanin157620A. Lysyi331111113
WApr 10 · 08:30O. Badanin51119128113A. Lysyi48711101192
WMar 27 · 10:30O. Badanin331111113A. Lysyi138140
WMar 24 · 09:30O. Badanin331111113A. Lysyi188370
O. Badanin10
LSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113WSep 7 · 09:00O. Badanin1.3311131110113S. Zherykhin3.2561551292LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:30O. Badanin1.57111125113S. Honcharenko2.2559111182LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531
A. Lysyi10
WSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762LSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113WSep 7 · 08:30V. Khyzhnyak5.00531261A. Lysyi1.14111110113WSep 7 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.7311811113S. Zherykhin2.00911481LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113
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