TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384690
Played Aug 9Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118115117––
Dmytro Novik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Urezchenko to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Dmytro Novik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Yurii Urezchenko at 57.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 18–6 Dmytro Novik Dmytro Novik has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urezchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-6 in 24
Urezchenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1016 vs Novik 1004
Urezchenko
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 20% vs Novik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 30% vs Novik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -3 · Novik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Urezchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 1.57 / Novik 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Urezchenko)+1.8pp
Setka Cup · #12384690
Urezchenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 60 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 42 of 53
Novik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 19 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko8wins
AwayNovik2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderUrezchenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayNovik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko6Novik4n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S2Urezchenko6Novik4n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko4Novik6n = 10Novik took 6 of 10
S4Urezchenko7Novik2n = 9Urezchenko took 7 of 9
S5Urezchenko4Novik1n = 5Urezchenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoNovikU − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.241.0+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoNovikBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 471 vs 117 / 29444.4%39.8%209 / 471 vs 117 / 294Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.834.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrezchenkoUrezchenko 1.57/Novik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Urezchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko4071111113D. Novik31118571
WJul 20 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4611811163D. Novik375117141
LJul 13 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko53111489112D. Novik536121111133
LJun 28 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko368111161D. Novik4011513113
WMay 25 · 10:28Y. Urezchenko331111113D. Novik259970
WMay 25 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3812114113D. Novik371091171
WMar 30 · 09:00Y. Urezchenko48811711113D. Novik4511611892
WMar 18 · 08:30Y. Urezchenko6111121011173D. Novik51514125152
WMar 2 · 18:28Y. Urezchenko39114211113D. Novik4681111972
WMar 2 · 16:00Y. Urezchenko481131111123D. Novik45131174102
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143LSep 10 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.80711118113Y. Urezchenko1.9111881192WSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113LSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko1.407650V. Hyriavyi2.751111113LSep 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.4059140M. Zavoloka1.301111163WSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.91101111113D. Novik1.80128971LAug 9 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.441111113D. Novik2.634860LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891WAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2.503640D. Novik1.501111113LAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novik2.759580V. Matviichuk1.401111113
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