TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105969
Played Sep 10Finished
Vasyl Matviichuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116116101211131311
Yurii Urezchenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Yurii Urezchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 104 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 69.2%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 51–37 Yurii Urezchenko Yurii Urezchenko has won 37 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Matviichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-37 in 88
Matviichuk
Correct
gap of 14 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1053 vs Urezchenko 1098
Urezchenko
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 40% vs Urezchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 50% vs Urezchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -2 · Urezchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Matviichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.40 / Urezchenko 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Matviichuk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13105969
Matviichuk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it82% 63 of 77
Urezchenko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 46 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back15% 15 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk8wins
AwayUrezchenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk77.8%7 of 9
AwayUrezchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk9Urezchenko1n = 10Matviichuk took 9 of 10
S2Matviichuk7Urezchenko3n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S3Matviichuk8Urezchenko2n = 10Matviichuk took 8 of 10
S4Matviichuk2Urezchenko3n = 5Urezchenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukUrezchenkoM − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.030.4+6.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukUrezchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 614 vs 210 / 47347.2%44.4%290 / 614 vs 210 / 473Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.40/Urezchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 08:00V. Matviichuk—1111113Y. Urezchenko—3570
WAug 31 · 09:30V. Matviichuk—1111123Y. Urezchenko—99100
LAug 25 · 08:00V. Matviichuk—15116472Y. Urezchenko—1391111113
WAug 24 · 08:00V. Matviichuk—31112113Y. Urezchenko—1181061
WAug 19 · 09:30V. Matviichuk—11611113Y. Urezchenko—511861
WAug 10 · 09:30V. Matviichuk—1111113Y. Urezchenko—8760
LAug 10 · 06:00V. Matviichuk—165891Y. Urezchenko—141111103
WJul 21 · 05:00V. Matviichuk—1110114113Y. Urezchenko—31251162
WJul 20 · 08:00V. Matviichuk—1111113Y. Urezchenko—8590
WJul 12 · 15:00V. Matviichuk—1111113Y. Urezchenko—3390
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 10 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.251111133V. Matviichuk1.3345110LSep 10 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.631211113V. Matviichuk1.4410450LSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143LSep 10 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.80711118113Y. Urezchenko1.9111881192WSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113LSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko1.407650V. Hyriavyi2.751111113LSep 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.4059140M. Zavoloka1.301111163WSep 7 · 10:33A. Lysyi1.367690Y. Urezchenko3.001111113WSep 7 · 09:30V. Khyzhnyak1.7311591192Y. Urezchenko2.00611114113
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