TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352449
Played Aug 3Finished
Vasyl Matviichuk
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115119––––
Dmytro Novik
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 76.9% is still 76.9%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
76.9%
76.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Dmytro Novik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 76.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 22–6 Dmytro Novik Dmytro Novik has won 6 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Matviichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-6 in 28
Matviichuk
Correct
gap of 16 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1154 vs Novik 1084
Matviichuk
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 40% vs Novik 60%
Novik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 20% vs Novik 50%
Novik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -1 · Novik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Matviichuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.33 / Novik 3.25
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Matviichuk)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12352449
Matviichuk1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 63 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it83% 50 of 60
Novik3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk7wins
AwayNovik3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk87.5%7 of 8
AwayNovikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk8Novik2n = 10Matviichuk took 8 of 10
S2Matviichuk10Novik0n = 10Matviichuk took 10 of 10
S3Matviichuk7Novik3n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S4Matviichuk0Novik3n = 3Novik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukNovikM − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.227.5+6.7per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukNovikBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 646 vs 116 / 28548%40.7%310 / 646 vs 116 / 285Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.234.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.33/Novik 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.9%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 16:00V. Matviichuk331111113D. Novik229580
LJul 20 · 05:30V. Matviichuk28411581D. Novik3711411113
WJul 4 · 09:00V. Matviichuk371214113D. Novik28101260
WJul 1 · 07:30V. Matviichuk331111113D. Novik165650
WFeb 5 · 07:00V. Matviichuk331111113D. Novik227870
WFeb 4 · 06:00V. Matviichuk331111113D. Novik185670
LFeb 2 · 11:31V. Matviichuk521311711102D. Novik521151113123
LFeb 2 · 06:00V. Matviichuk26411741D. Novik3611311113
WJan 26 · 10:00V. Matviichuk341111123D. Novik2587100
WJan 24 · 06:00V. Matviichuk331111113D. Novik196670
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112LSep 10 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.251111133V. Matviichuk1.3345110LSep 10 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.631211113V. Matviichuk1.4410450LSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.91101111113D. Novik1.80128971LAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko1.5771111113D. Novik2.25118571LAug 9 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.441111113D. Novik2.634860LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891WAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2.503640D. Novik1.501111113WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novik2.759580V. Matviichuk1.401111113
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