TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12351398
Played Aug 2Finished
Dmytro Novik
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511811––––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Novik above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 72.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Novik 6–21 Vasyl Matviichuk Dmytro Novik has won 6 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Matviichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-21 in 27
Matviichuk
Correct
gap of 15 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novik 1092 vs Matviichuk 1166
Matviichuk
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novik 40% vs Matviichuk 20%
Novik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novik 40% vs Matviichuk 10%
Novik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novik -1 · Matviichuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Matviichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovik 2.75 / Matviichuk 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Matviichuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12351398
Novik2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Matviichuk1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite63% won 61 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovik3wins
AwayMatviichuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovik66.7%2 of 3
AwayMatviichuk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novik3Matviichuk7n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S2Novik0Matviichuk10n = 10Matviichuk took 10 of 10
S3Novik3Matviichuk7n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S4Novik4Matviichuk0n = 4Novik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovikMatviichukN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.935.5−6.6per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovikMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 283 vs 309 / 64440.6%48%115 / 283 vs 309 / 644Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukNovik 2.75/Matviichuk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 05:30D. Novik3711411113V. Matviichuk28411581
LJul 4 · 09:00D. Novik28101260V. Matviichuk371214113
LJul 1 · 07:30D. Novik165650V. Matviichuk331111113
LFeb 5 · 07:00D. Novik227870V. Matviichuk331111113
LFeb 4 · 06:00D. Novik185670V. Matviichuk331111113
WFeb 2 · 11:31D. Novik521151113123V. Matviichuk521311711102
WFeb 2 · 06:00D. Novik3611311113V. Matviichuk26411741
LJan 26 · 10:00D. Novik2587100V. Matviichuk341111123
LJan 24 · 06:00D. Novik196670V. Matviichuk331111113
LJan 12 · 06:00D. Novik3611641232V. Matviichuk463111110113
D. Novik10
LAug 9 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.281113113D. Novik3.5061160LAug 9 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.91101111113D. Novik1.80128971LAug 9 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko1.5771111113D. Novik2.25118571LAug 9 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.441111113D. Novik2.634860LAug 3 · 10:04D. Novik3.25415571A. Lysyi1.33111311113LAug 3 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.38971111113D. Novik1.5311119482LAug 3 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.7511911113D. Novik1.40411891WAug 3 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2.503640D. Novik1.501111113LAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590WAug 2 · 17:28D. Novik1.6111117113V. Khyzhnyak2.20861171
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112LSep 10 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.251111133V. Matviichuk1.3345110LSep 10 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.631211113V. Matviichuk1.4410450LSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101WAug 3 · 05:00V. Matviichuk1.331111113D. Novik3.258590
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