Maksymilian Miastowski vs Konrad Kulpa 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383352

Played Aug 9Finished

Maksymilian Miastowski

Home

4.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

118111310121181311

Konrad Kulpa

Away

1.17

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 86.4% is still 86.4%

Graded at full time

Konrad Kulpa to win

86.4%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Konrad Kulpa below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 13-11

Point 108 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 86.4%

108 points played in total.

H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 1–2 Konrad Kulpa Maksymilian Miastowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 1–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 15:58

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.17 (79%)

Kulpa

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

1-2 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Miastowski 1714 vs Kulpa 1904

Kulpa

Wrong

both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Miastowski 40% vs Kulpa 60%

Kulpa

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Miastowski 30% vs Kulpa 70%

Kulpa

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Miastowski -1 · Kulpa -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Kulpa)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kulpa form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMiastowski 4.50 / Kulpa 1.17

Signal prob.14% / 86%

Edge (Kulpa)+7.0pp

TT Elite Series · #12383352

Miastowski4.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog42% won 87 of 209

Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 120

Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67

Kulpa1.17

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite54% won 15 of 28

Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6

Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeMiastowski1wins

AwayKulpa2wins

1 of 3 to a deciderKulpa leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Miastowski1Kulpa2n = 3Kulpa took 2 of 3

S2Miastowski2Kulpa1n = 3Miastowski took 2 of 3

S3Miastowski0Kulpa3n = 3Kulpa took 3 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home133%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away133%

0–3Straight, away133%

These 3 meetings

MetricMiastowskiKulpaM − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.739.3−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMiastowskiKulpaBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1122 vs 49 / 7751.5%63.6%578 / 1122 vs 49 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kulpa

Miastowski 4.50/Kulpa 1.17

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

86.4%

Kulpa · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Miastowski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

LAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski—111170K. Kulpa—1313113

WAug 8 · 13:20M. Miastowski—111142113K. Kulpa—99111142

LAug 8 · 07:45M. Miastowski—711691K. Kulpa—11411113

M. Miastowski10

WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133 LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113 LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191 LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090 LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561 WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982 WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081 WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270 LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892 LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113

K. Kulpa10

WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123 LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113 WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172 WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113 WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113 LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133 WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113 WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113 WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113 WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103

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