TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383337
Played Aug 9Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131113711––––
Konrad Kulpa
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 86.4% is still 86.4%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
86.4%
86.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Konrad Kulpa below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 66 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 86.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 1–2 Konrad Kulpa Maksymilian Miastowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kulpa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1733 vs Kulpa 1909
Kulpa
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 60% vs Kulpa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 30% vs Kulpa 60%
Kulpa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -2 · Kulpa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Kulpa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulpa form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 4.50 / Kulpa 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Kulpa)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383337
Miastowski4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Kulpa1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMiastowski1wins
AwayKulpa2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKulpa leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski1Kulpa2n = 3Kulpa took 2 of 3
S2Miastowski2Kulpa1n = 3Miastowski took 2 of 3
S3Miastowski0Kulpa3n = 3Kulpa took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMiastowskiKulpaM − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.739.3−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiKulpaBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1116 vs 45 / 7151.6%63.4%576 / 1116 vs 45 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaMiastowski 4.50/Kulpa 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.4%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kulpa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski—111170K. Kulpa—1313113
WAug 8 · 13:20M. Miastowski—111142113K. Kulpa—99111142
LAug 8 · 07:45M. Miastowski—711691K. Kulpa—11411113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
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