TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383343
Played Aug 9Finished
Konrad Kulpa
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119811115711
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 82.0% is still 82.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
82.0%
82.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKonrad Kulpa above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 82.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Kulpa 2–2 Maciej Nowalinski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kulpa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulpa 1922 vs Nowalinski 1670
Kulpa
Wrong
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulpa 80% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kulpa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulpa 70% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kulpa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulpa +3 · Nowalinski -2
Kulpa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Kulpa) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulpa 1.17 / Nowalinski 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Kulpa)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383343
Kulpa1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Nowalinski4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 134 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back18% 37 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKulpa2wins
AwayNowalinski2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulpan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulpa1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S2Kulpa2Nowalinski2n = 4split evenly
S3Kulpa1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S4Kulpa3Nowalinski0n = 3Kulpa took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKulpaNowalinskiK − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.243.5−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulpaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 76 vs 874 / 180264.5%48.5%49 / 76 vs 874 / 1802Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaKulpa 1.17/Nowalinski 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
86.4%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 27 · 12:50K. Kulpa—78100M. Nowalinski—1111123
LApr 27 · 06:15K. Kulpa—411141372M. Nowalinski—1191611113
WApr 26 · 09:10K. Kulpa—1171012113M. Nowalinski—811121072
WFeb 16 · 08:40K. Kulpa—111111113M. Nowalinski—135791
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113
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