TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383369
Played Aug 9Finished
Konrad Kulpa
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118119611117
Maciej Domin
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 83.6% is still 83.6%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
83.6%
83.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Kulpa above · Maciej Domin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 83.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Kulpa 2–1 Maciej Domin Maciej Domin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Kulpa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulpa 1927 vs Domin 1833
Kulpa
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulpa 80% vs Domin 60%
Kulpa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulpa 70% vs Domin 40%
Kulpa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulpa +2 · Domin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Kulpa) · live re-read · sealed at 84% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Domin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulpa 1.20 / Domin 4.33
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Kulpa)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383369
Kulpa1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Domin4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKulpa2wins
AwayDomin1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKulpa leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulpa2Domin1n = 3Kulpa took 2 of 3
S2Kulpa1Domin2n = 3Domin took 2 of 3
S3Kulpa1Domin2n = 3Domin took 2 of 3
S4Kulpa3Domin0n = 3Kulpa took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKulpaDominK − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match47.345.0+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulpaDominBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 75 vs 515 / 97964%52.6%48 / 75 vs 515 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaKulpa 1.20/Domin 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.3%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kulpa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa—711811112M. Domin—118119133
WAug 8 · 10:25K. Kulpa—111112113M. Domin—6131071
WAug 8 · 03:25K. Kulpa—119711113M. Domin—91111972
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133
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