TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383037
Played Aug 9Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511411––––
Konrad Kulpa
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Konrad Kulpa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 2–2 Konrad Kulpa Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kulpa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1693 vs Kulpa 1893
Kulpa
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Kulpa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 30% vs Kulpa 60%
Kulpa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -1 · Kulpa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Kulpa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulpa form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 3.75 / Kulpa 1.25
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Kulpa)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383037
Nowalinski3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 137 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back18% 38 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 100
Kulpa1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 10 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNowalinski2wins
AwayKulpa2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKulpan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski3Kulpa1n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S2Nowalinski2Kulpa2n = 4split evenly
S3Nowalinski3Kulpa1n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S4Nowalinski0Kulpa3n = 3Kulpa took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricNowalinskiKulpaN − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.542.2+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiKulpaBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1796 vs 44 / 7048.6%62.9%872 / 1796 vs 44 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaNowalinski 3.75/Kulpa 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kulpa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 27 · 12:50M. Nowalinski—1111123K. Kulpa—78100
WApr 27 · 06:15M. Nowalinski—1191611113K. Kulpa—411141372
LApr 26 · 09:10M. Nowalinski—811121072K. Kulpa—1171012113
LFeb 16 · 08:40M. Nowalinski—135791K. Kulpa—111111113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
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