TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383338
Played Aug 9Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111210911––
Konrad Kulpa
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Konrad Kulpa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 61.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 7–8 Konrad Kulpa Kacper Petas has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:01What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kulpa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1945 vs Kulpa 1909
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 80% vs Kulpa 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Kulpa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +3 · Kulpa -1
Petas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kulpa) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 3.00 / Kulpa 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kulpa)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383338
Petas3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 126 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kulpa1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas6wins
AwayKulpa4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPetas leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetasn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKulpa50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas2Kulpa8n = 10Kulpa took 8 of 10
S2Petas5Kulpa5n = 10split evenly
S3Petas9Kulpa1n = 10Petas took 9 of 10
S4Petas6Kulpa4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S5Petas3Kulpa3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasKulpaP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match45.844.8+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasKulpaBasisWin rate · lifetime714 / 1363 vs 46 / 7352.4%63%714 / 1363 vs 46 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaPetas 3.00/Kulpa 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kulpa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 09:00K. Petas—1112118113K. Kulpa—71491162
WAug 8 · 06:30K. Petas—61311113K. Kulpa—1111981
LJul 20 · 10:45K. Petas—791181K. Kulpa—11118113
WJul 19 · 14:05K. Petas—71111113K. Kulpa—118951
LJul 19 · 05:50K. Petas—1112111362K. Kulpa—1314711113
WJun 22 · 15:10K. Petas—111111113K. Kulpa—139751
LJun 22 · 06:15K. Petas—98111452K. Kulpa—1111912113
WJun 21 · 11:10K. Petas—611114113K. Kulpa—11881182
LJun 21 · 06:40K. Petas—79111682K. Kulpa—1111614113
WMay 24 · 11:10K. Petas—111198123K. Kulpa—851111102
K. Petas10
WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113WSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142LSep 1 · 10:25K. Petas1.50101110111K. Glazowski2.5012412133WSep 1 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.671151271K. Petas2.10131110113LSep 1 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.7311611113K. Petas2.00911881WSep 1 · 07:20K. Petas1.501110118113J. Kuzmicz2.5081271162LSep 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.61118911113K. Petas2.2081111342LSep 1 · 04:55P. Cyrnek1.5711124113K. Petas2.258101191WSep 1 · 03:25D. Prokopcov3.0061170K. Petas1.361113113
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.381181171K. Kulpa1.5313118113WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
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