TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12383340
Played Aug 9Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113811118711––
Konrad Kulpa
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeKonrad Kulpa to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Konrad Kulpa below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Konrad Kulpa at 64.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 3–7 Konrad Kulpa Marcin Jadczyk has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kulpa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Kulpa
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1953 vs Kulpa 1901
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Kulpa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 70% vs Kulpa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +2 · Kulpa +3
Kulpa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kulpa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 2.38 / Kulpa 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kulpa)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12383340
Jadczyk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 140 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back28% 41 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Kulpa1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk3wins
AwayKulpa7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKulpa leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk60%3 of 5
AwayKulpa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk5Kulpa5n = 10split evenly
S2Jadczyk3Kulpa7n = 10Kulpa took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk5Kulpa5n = 10split evenly
S4Jadczyk3Kulpa6n = 9Kulpa took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykKulpaJ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.0−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykKulpaBasisWin rate · lifetime927 / 1574 vs 50 / 7958.9%63.3%927 / 1574 vs 50 / 79Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.641.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulpaJadczyk 2.38/Kulpa 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Kulpa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kulpa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—1181171K. Kulpa—13118113
WAug 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11511113K. Kulpa—811871
LAug 1 · 06:55M. Jadczyk—1011781K. Kulpa—12811113
LAug 17 · 11:35M. Jadczyk—871141K. Kulpa—11116113
WAug 17 · 05:25M. Jadczyk—111113113K. Kulpa—551561
LAug 16 · 10:45M. Jadczyk—117581K. Kulpa—8111193
LAug 16 · 08:00M. Jadczyk—11612742K. Kulpa—8111011113
LFeb 16 · 05:40M. Jadczyk—711591K. Kulpa—11811113
LFeb 15 · 12:35M. Jadczyk—8880K. Kulpa—1111113
WFeb 15 · 06:25M. Jadczyk—11913113K. Kulpa—6111191
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
K. Kulpa10
WAug 9 · 13:45K. Petas2.63136124102K. Kulpa1.4411111011123LAug 9 · 12:55M. Miastowski4.5011111011133K. Kulpa1.17813128112LAug 9 · 12:05K. Kulpa1.1781181172M. Nowalinski4.50119115113WAug 9 · 10:25K. Kulpa1.20611116113M. Domin4.3311891172WAug 9 · 09:40K. Wisniewski5.50661181K. Kulpa1.1311115113WAug 9 · 08:30K. Petas3.00891291K. Kulpa1.36111110113LAug 9 · 07:20K. Kulpa1.22711811112M. Domin4.00118119133WAug 9 · 04:55M. Miastowski4.50111170K. Kulpa1.171313113WAug 9 · 03:25M. Nowalinski3.756540K. Kulpa1.251111113WAug 8 · 14:10G. Poliniewicz3.006950K. Kulpa1.361111103
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