TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12366619
Played Aug 7Finished
Ales Bayer
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117119––––
Martin Sobisek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:16 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAles Bayer to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Bayer above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ales Bayer at 65.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ales Bayer 35–35 Martin Sobisek Dead even across their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bayer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-35 in 70
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bayer 1711 vs Sobisek 1537
Bayer
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bayer 80% vs Sobisek 0%
Bayer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bayer 70% vs Sobisek 40%
Bayer
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bayer +3 · Sobisek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bayer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBayer 1.61 / Sobisek 2.20
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Bayer)+8.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12366619
Bayer1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 135 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it95% 90 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it77% 112 of 145
Sobisek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 124 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back23% 46 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBayer8wins
AwaySobisek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBayer leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBayer100%6 of 6
AwaySobisek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bayer6Sobisek4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S2Bayer6Sobisek4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S3Bayer6Sobisek4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S4Bayer3Sobisek3n = 6split evenly
S5Bayer4Sobisek0n = 4Bayer took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBayerSobisekB − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.934.2+4.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBayerSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 970 vs 535 / 115946.6%46.2%452 / 970 vs 535 / 1159Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BayerBayer 1.61/Sobisek 2.20
Hit
What we said
65.7%
Bayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 01:00A. Bayer—1211113M. Sobisek—10560
WAug 2 · 12:30A. Bayer—1111113M. Sobisek—7770
LJul 28 · 10:30A. Bayer—1261191M. Sobisek—14117113
WJul 28 · 09:28A. Bayer—111256133M. Sobisek—7101111112
WJul 28 · 07:00A. Bayer—11611113M. Sobisek—711541
WJul 27 · 17:30A. Bayer—6111111113M. Sobisek—11138692
WJul 27 · 14:00A. Bayer—111196113M. Sobisek—46111162
WJul 27 · 10:30A. Bayer—1111113M. Sobisek—5670
LJul 26 · 16:30A. Bayer—41160M. Sobisek—1113113
WJul 26 · 12:30A. Bayer—911411113M. Sobisek—11811842
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123WSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271
Upcoming Matches
A. Bayer
Nothing scheduled
M. Sobisek
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