TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12361104
Played Aug 5Finished
Ales Bayer
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119115211118––
Petr Sebera
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timePetr Sebera to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Bayer above · Petr Sebera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 68 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Petr Sebera at 63.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ales Bayer 13–26 Petr Sebera Ales Bayer has won 13 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:57What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sebera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-26 in 39
Sebera
Wrong
gap of 13 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bayer 1682 vs Sebera 1667
Bayer
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bayer 60% vs Sebera 20%
Bayer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bayer 70% vs Sebera 40%
Bayer
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bayer -2 · Sebera -4
Sebera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Sebera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebera form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBayer 2.38 / Sebera 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Sebera)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12361104
Bayer2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 145 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Sebera1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 193 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it97% 98 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it77% 144 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBayer5wins
AwaySebera5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBayer50%2 of 4
AwaySebera50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bayer4Sebera6n = 10Sebera took 6 of 10
S2Bayer7Sebera3n = 10Bayer took 7 of 10
S3Bayer1Sebera9n = 10Sebera took 9 of 10
S4Bayer6Sebera4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S5Bayer4Sebera2n = 6Bayer took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBayerSeberaB − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.444.3−4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBayerSeberaBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 971 vs 611 / 120146.6%50.9%452 / 971 vs 611 / 1201Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeberaBayer 2.38/Sebera 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.8%
Sebera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer—11112113P. Sebera—951181
LJul 9 · 03:30A. Bayer—118651P. Sebera—71111113
LJul 9 · 02:00A. Bayer—11291242P. Sebera—9111110113
WJul 4 · 11:00A. Bayer—611212113P. Sebera—117111092
WJun 17 · 01:30A. Bayer—611115113P. Sebera—11241192
LJun 16 · 17:30A. Bayer—911691P. Sebera—11711113
WJun 16 · 16:00A. Bayer—117311123P. Sebera—811115102
LJun 10 · 08:59A. Bayer—512951P. Sebera—111011113
WJun 10 · 08:30A. Bayer—411412113P. Sebera—117111072
LJun 6 · 01:30A. Bayer—1411131142P. Sebera—169158113
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
P. Sebera10
LAug 16 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8311911113P. Sebera1.83811961LAug 16 · 02:00J. Louda1.8312116113P. Sebera1.831061191WAug 16 · 24:30P. Sebera1.61101111113M. Regner2.20126881WAug 15 · 23:00P. Sebera2.631111113M. Pikous1.446790LAug 15 · 22:00M. Sychra1.911111113P. Sebera1.800870WAug 15 · 09:00P. Sebera1.6711127113M. Regner2.106101171LAug 15 · 08:30P. Sebera1.9191114592J. Tazler1.801191211113WAug 15 · 07:00P. Sebera1.731115113M. Regner2.0051340LAug 15 · 06:00P. Saleny1.539111313113P. Sebera2.381113111172LAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221
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