TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434181
Played Aug 15Finished
Petr Sebera
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111191412511911
Jakub Tazler
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timePetr Sebera to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Sebera above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Sebera at 61.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Petr Sebera 7–3 Jakub Tazler Jakub Tazler has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tazler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Sebera
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebera 1697 vs Tazler 1644
Sebera
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebera 40% vs Tazler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebera 40% vs Tazler 20%
Sebera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebera +1 · Tazler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sebera) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebera 1.91 / Tazler 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sebera)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434181
Sebera1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 161 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Tazler1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 101 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it76% 75 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebera7wins
AwayTazler3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSebera leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebera100%6 of 6
AwayTazler75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebera6Tazler4n = 10Sebera took 6 of 10
S2Sebera7Tazler3n = 10Sebera took 7 of 10
S3Sebera7Tazler3n = 10Sebera took 7 of 10
S4Sebera2Tazler3n = 5Tazler took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeberaTazlerS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.931.9+2.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeberaTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1252 vs 385 / 70651.2%54.5%641 / 1252 vs 385 / 706Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeberaSebera 1.91/Tazler 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sebera · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 15 · 22:30P. Sebera—1111113J. Tazler—1850
WJul 13 · 20:30P. Sebera—1111113J. Tazler—2880
LJul 10 · 10:30P. Sebera—411471J. Tazler—11511113
WJul 10 · 06:00P. Sebera—1111113J. Tazler—8990
LJun 15 · 09:28P. Sebera—1361281J. Tazler—151110113
LJun 15 · 07:00P. Sebera—4780J. Tazler—1111113
WMar 12 · 03:30P. Sebera—11115113J. Tazler—751161
WDec 4 · 16:00P. Sebera—1311113J. Tazler—11990
WOct 26 · 19:00P. Sebera—113115123J. Tazler—911611102
WOct 4 · 11:00P. Sebera—61311113J. Tazler—1111791
P. Sebera10
LAug 16 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8311911113P. Sebera1.83811961LAug 16 · 02:00J. Louda1.8312116113P. Sebera1.831061191WAug 16 · 24:30P. Sebera1.61101111113M. Regner2.20126881WAug 15 · 23:00P. Sebera2.631111113M. Pikous1.446790LAug 15 · 22:00M. Sychra1.911111113P. Sebera1.800870WAug 15 · 09:00P. Sebera1.6711127113M. Regner2.106101171WAug 15 · 07:00P. Sebera1.731115113M. Regner2.0051340LAug 15 · 06:00P. Saleny1.539111313113P. Sebera2.381113111172LAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221WAug 14 · 01:00M. Wagner1.57711781P. Sebera2.2511311113
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221
Upcoming Matches
P. Sebera
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J. Tazler
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