TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12433379
Played Aug 15Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911111313111311117
Petr Sebera
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Petr Sebera below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 110 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Saleny at 55.2%
110 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 13–6 Petr Sebera Petr Sebera has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Saleny
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1702 vs Sebera 1688
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 20% vs Sebera 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 30% vs Sebera 50%
Sebera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -4 · Sebera -1
Saleny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebera form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 1.53 / Sebera 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Saleny)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12433379
Saleny1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 47 of 58
Sebera2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 162 of 352
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaleny5wins
AwaySebera5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny100%4 of 4
AwaySebera83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny4Sebera6n = 10Sebera took 6 of 10
S2Saleny6Sebera4n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S3Saleny7Sebera3n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S4Saleny3Sebera1n = 4Saleny took 3 of 4
S5Saleny1Sebera3n = 4Sebera took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalenySeberaSaleny − SeberaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.9+0.2per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenySeberaBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 404 vs 644 / 125950.3%51.2%203 / 404 vs 644 / 1259Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenySaleny 1.53/Sebera 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 06:00P. Saleny—9111313113P. Sebera—1113111172
WJul 29 · 09:29P. Saleny—1111113P. Sebera—9980
LJul 29 · 08:00P. Saleny—1011611122P. Sebera—129117143
WJul 10 · 11:00P. Saleny—1111113P. Sebera—8660
WJul 10 · 09:30P. Saleny—1111113P. Sebera—4970
LJul 10 · 07:00P. Saleny—9350P. Sebera—1111113
WJul 4 · 09:30P. Saleny—1111133P. Sebera—88110
LJul 4 · 07:30P. Saleny—4690P. Sebera—1111113
LJul 2 · 13:00P. Saleny—81111842P. Sebera—115711113
LJul 2 · 12:30P. Saleny—112111172P. Sebera—131177113
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872
P. Sebera10
LAug 16 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8311911113P. Sebera1.83811961LAug 16 · 02:00J. Louda1.8312116113P. Sebera1.831061191WAug 16 · 24:30P. Sebera1.61101111113M. Regner2.20126881WAug 15 · 23:00P. Sebera2.631111113M. Pikous1.446790LAug 15 · 22:00M. Sychra1.911111113P. Sebera1.800870WAug 15 · 09:00P. Sebera1.6711127113M. Regner2.106101171LAug 15 · 08:30P. Sebera1.9191114592J. Tazler1.801191211113WAug 15 · 07:00P. Sebera1.731115113M. Regner2.0051340LAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221WAug 14 · 01:00M. Wagner1.57711781P. Sebera2.2511311113
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