TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434387
Played Aug 15Finished
Petr Sebera
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117119––––
Marcel Pikous
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Sebera above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 68.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Petr Sebera 12–31 Marcel Pikous Petr Sebera has won 12 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pikous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-31 in 43
Pikous
Wrong
gap of 19 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebera 1704 vs Pikous 1737
Pikous
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebera 40% vs Pikous 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebera 30% vs Pikous 50%
Pikous
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebera -1 · Pikous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Pikous)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebera 2.63 / Pikous 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Pikous)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434387
Sebera2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 161 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Pikous1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 120 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it76% 83 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebera3wins
AwayPikous7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebera66.7%2 of 3
AwayPikous85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebera3Pikous7n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S2Sebera2Pikous8n = 10Pikous took 8 of 10
S3Sebera6Pikous4n = 10Sebera took 6 of 10
S4Sebera3Pikous3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeberaPikousS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.036.8−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeberaPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime642 / 1255 vs 378 / 70651.2%53.5%642 / 1255 vs 378 / 706Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousSebera 2.63/Pikous 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sebera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 23:30P. Sebera—1112113M. Pikous—51050
LJul 31 · 02:59P. Sebera—118661M. Pikous—21111113
LJul 31 · 01:30P. Sebera—12470M. Pikous—1411113
LJul 28 · 02:58P. Sebera—61150M. Pikous—1113113
WJul 28 · 02:30P. Sebera—111011143M. Pikous—9129121
LJul 15 · 19:30P. Sebera—7111111102M. Pikous—111388123
LJul 11 · 23:00P. Sebera—7511111M. Pikous—11117133
LJul 6 · 18:30P. Sebera—7690M. Pikous—1111113
LJul 5 · 23:30P. Sebera—1161181M. Pikous—13117113
WJul 1 · 16:00P. Sebera—91111113M. Pikous—118481
P. Sebera10
LAug 16 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8311911113P. Sebera1.83811961LAug 16 · 02:00J. Louda1.8312116113P. Sebera1.831061191WAug 16 · 24:30P. Sebera1.61101111113M. Regner2.20126881LAug 15 · 22:00M. Sychra1.911111113P. Sebera1.800870WAug 15 · 09:00P. Sebera1.6711127113M. Regner2.106101171LAug 15 · 08:30P. Sebera1.9191114592J. Tazler1.801191211113WAug 15 · 07:00P. Sebera1.731115113M. Regner2.0051340LAug 15 · 06:00P. Saleny1.539111313113P. Sebera2.381113111172LAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221WAug 14 · 01:00M. Wagner1.57711781P. Sebera2.2511311113
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.